1. Scientific Substantiation of Measures to Combat Global Climate Change

Intensive research into the global climate change processes has been carried out since over 30 years in many countries of the world, including Russia. Based on the results obtained, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established in conformity with the provisions of UN General Assembly resolution No.43/53 of December 6, 1988, has made a conclusion that during the recent 150 years (i.e. since the beginning of the industrial revolution) an unprecedented growth of concentrations of greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, has taken place, resulting in changes in the atmospheric circulation and an increase in the global annual mean temperature. Such high rates of climate change had not been observed at least during the past 150,000 years, or may be over 1 million years, which has been confirmed by numerous studies of paleodata.

The overwhelming majority of the world's scientific community does not have any doubts about the anthropogenic origin of the climate change having taken place during the recent century. Such a conclusion was made in the first climate change assessment report published by the IPCC in 1989 and presented at the UN General Assembly in December 1990 and at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

In the third climate change assessment report by the IPCC (2000) a conclusion has been made that the current rates of the growth of the greenhouse gas concentrations and the global mean temperature significantly exceed even the previous pessimistic projections made in the previous second assessment report by the IPCC. Probable scenarios of climate change on a long-term basis have been analyzed with the aid of mathematical models. During the current century the average temperature on the Earth might increase by 6 C. This would result in a misbalance of the global ecosystem, unpredictable local effects, and enormous damage to the economics, social aspects and the environment.

The consequences of climate change have been assessed by the IPCC as catastrophic virtually for all regions of the world, including Russia. In order to mitigate such consequences two alternative areas for actions have been considered: (1) adaptation to the climate change and (2) abatement of the man-made impact on the climate (reductions in greenhouse gas emissions). These two approaches have been approved by the world's scientific community and accepted in the fundamental UN documents on climate change.



2. International Agreements on Global Climate

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) adopted pursuant to the provisions of UN General Assembly resolution No.46/169 of December 19, 1991 on protection of global climate in the benefits of the present and future generations of humankind came to force in 1995. This Convention was ratified by Russia in 1994. In the preamble to the Convention it has been stated, inter alia, that the world community has adopted this agreement being "Concerned that human activities have been substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these increases enhance the natural greenhouse effect, and that this will result on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural ecosystems and humankind".

The main objective of the FCCC is to achieve "in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system".

The measures defined in the FCCC provide for application of the most important UN principle of the common but differentiated responsibility, with due account of social and economic conditions of individual countries. At the same time, it had been admitted that the main responsibility for anthropogenic climate change is with the industrially developed countries.

It has been defined in the FCCC (Article 4, para. 2a) that the countries listed in Annex I to the FCCC (including the Russian Federation) should adopt a national policy aimed at combating climate change and its negative consequences and demonstrate their leadership in this field to other countries.

As a follow up of the UNFCCC adoption, economic mechanisms have been developed for international cooperation aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and supporting measures for adaptation to climate change, included in the Kyoto Protocol to the FCCC adopted in December 1997 and ratified by 121 countries (as of April 2004).

The fundamental principle of the Kyoto Protocol is one of the basic provisions of the international law, i.e. the principle of caution, which implies that if there is a threat of serious or irrecoverable damage, the lack of full scientific certainty should not be the reason for delay of reasonable measures aimed at preventing an environmental threat.

According to the Kyoto Protocol, the countries listed in Annex B (including Russia) obtain a quota for emissions of greenhouse gases (gases and their sources are listed in Annex A) for a period of 2008-2012. For Russia a quota has been established as 100% of the 1990 level. Negotiations on obligations of countries for subsequent periods, where Russia will have to agree upon a future quote, should begin not later than in 2005.

In order to decrease the expenses for emission reductions, the Protocol foresees flexibility mechanisms implying ways for financing measures for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in those countries, where it is most beneficial, with subsequent transfer of the quota units to investor countries. For example, a reduction in CO2 emissions in the energy industry and housing sector of Russia, according to the available estimates, will cost lower by an order of magnitude than in Japan and EU countries.



3. Economic Consequences of the Kyoto Protocol Ratification for Russia

Participation of Russia in the Kyoto Protocol does not imply any threat to economic and social development of the country. Expenses required for fulfillment of its obligations, according to the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, will not exceed 10% of the cost of environmental monitoring (0.03% of the expenses of the state budget).

Russia will fulfill its quantitative obligations relating to limitation of greenhouse gas emissions for 2008-2012 even without any special measures. This has been confirmed by projections made in the National Report on climate change issues (2003), the third national report by the Russian Federation on the UNFCCC (2002), as well as in publications by the Bureau for Economic Analysis, the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, etc.

Currently, the emissions of greenhouse gases in Russia are lower than the 1990 level by over 30%. Estimations made on the basis of the data of the Energy Strategy of Russia for a period up to 2020 adopted by the RF Government in 2003 have indicated that emissions associated with the use of energy resources (their proportion in the overall emissions was 97% in 1999) will not reach the 1990 level even by 2020. According to the pessimistic scenario, the maximum increase in the emissions by 2020 will be as high as 95% of the 1990 level.

The flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol permit Russia to attract investments to projects aimed at modernization of the energy industry, housing sector, a number of sectors of industry, as well as forestry management in exchange for reductions in emissions. The amount of such investments will be determined depending on the world market, where Russia is a major potential seller of quotas.

According to available estimates, the demand in EU countries during the period until 2012 will be at least 600 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, in Japan about 1 billion tonnes and in Canada from 200 to 300 million tonnes. Furthermore, a significant demand for carbon dioxide quotas is expected from private companies, which have been already preparing and implementing investment projects in different countries of the world. The current price for quotas of greenhouse gas emissions in the world market is 3 to 5 US $ per 1 tonne of CO2, despite the fact that the Kyoto Protocol has not yet put to force.

It is important to point out that Russia will have also some additional benefits from participation in the Kyoto Protocol. They include first of all social benefits associated with a decrease in sickness and death rates caused by air pollution with substances associated with greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion (according to some estimates a decrease in deaths by up to 40,000 cases per year might be achieved). Furthermore, the expected growth of prices for natural gas, electric energy, metals and other energy-intensive commodities, etc. exported from Russia will be essential for the economics and the state budget of the country.

The objective to ensure sustainable economic growth and the goal to increase twofold the gross domestic product set by RF President V.V. Putin require re-orienting the national economy from prevailing export of commodities to development of high-technology, energy- and resource-effective production facilities. This fully complies with the current trends common in leading countries of the world. The Kyoto Protocol creates additional opportunities for active progress of Russia in this direction.



4. Political Aspects of Ratification

The Russian Federation has consistently pursued the course aimed at strengthening the agreement relations within the framework of the UN system. From this viewpoint, the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, as one of the mechanisms for implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change would be, without doubt, an essential step toward support of the UN activities in combating climate change. And on the contrary, refusal to ratify the Protocol would aggravate erosion of the practice of global actions and displace the center of gravity in this particular field toward unilateral uncoordinated actions.

Not later than in 2005 (most probably in 2004) international negotiations on quantitative obligations of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol for the period after 2012 will be commenced. In the absence of ratification of the Protocol by Russia these negotiations would be, most likely, transformed to negotiations on implementation of this international agreement without Russia. The potential consequences of non-participation of the Russian Federation in such negotiations and its isolation in this field would have enormous political consequences. Especially so, when we keep in mind the possible return of the USA under the umbrella of the Kyoto Protocol as early as before 2005.